Wednesday, July 6, 2022

Baghdad

Recession fears, rising inflation spook global markets

 Recession fears, rising inflation spook global markets

Will rising prices keep consumers away? Falling profits at retailers as inflation soars has worried investors

London – European and Asian markets took a beating Thursday after Wall Street suffered one of its worst batterings in two years over recession fears after decades-high inflation.

Downcast earnings reports from retailers have heightened worries about consumer resilience at a time of rising interest rates, surging energy prices, China lockdowns and the Ukraine war.

“Inflation is catching up and profit margins are taking a hit. Soon enough though, those higher costs will continue to be passed on and consumers will stop dipping into savings and start being more careful with their spending,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.

“The question is whether we’re going to see a slowdown or a recession,” he said.

Leading European and Asian stock indices closed in the red. 

On Wall Street, the Dow was lower in late morning trading but both the broader S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite were higher.

Shares in Chinese tech giants plunged after Tencent reported lacklustre profits, fuelling wider concerns over China’s economic outlook.

Tencent shares plunged more than eight percent in early trading before paring losses slightly, a day after it posted its slowest revenue gain since going public in 2004.

Among other tech titans, Alibaba dropped more than six percent.

On Wall Street Wednesday, all three major US indices dived, with the Dow sinking more than 1,150 points or 3.6 percent.

The Nasdaq plunged 4.7 percent by the close.

“Consumer confidence is likely to drop further as incomes are squeezed. Those big falls in shares of retailers –- Target and Walmart -– and others such as Amazon and Apple we saw on Wednesday certainly point towards this trend,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com.

“Inflation is not going to be easing significantly any time soon, at a time when the economic outlook also appears grim.”

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said the US dollar suffered as well on Thursday “driven by lower yields as concerns grow about the resilience of the US economy over the course of the rest of the year”.

In some of his most hawkish remarks to date, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell this week said the US central bank would raise interest rates until there is “clear and convincing” evidence that inflation is in retreat. 

But higher borrowing costs increases debt, heaping further pressure on consumers and businesses.

The United States is facing the fastest inflation in four decades, as is Britain, causing the Bank of England to also raise interest rates.

– Key figures at around 1530 GMT –

New York – Dow: DOWN 0.3 percent at 31,385.97 points

EURO STOXX 50: DOWN 1.3 percent at 3,640.55 

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 1.8 percent at 7,302.74 (close)

Frankfurt – DAX: DOWN 0.9 percent at 13,882.30 (close)

Paris – CAC 40: DOWN 1.2 percent at 6,272.71 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 2.5 percent at 20,120.60 (close)

Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.4 percent at 3,096.96 (close)

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.9 percent at 26,402.84 (close)

Brent North Sea crude: UP 0.9 percent at $110.18 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.21 percent at $109.82 per barrel

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0587 from $1.0479 at 2100 GMT Wednesday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2501 from $1.2346

Euro/pound: DOWN at 84.70 pence from 84.88 pence

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 127.38 yen from 128.58